In this study we give a summary of the developments and performance of the Hungarian secondary and tertiary system reserve market inthe last few years based on analysis of historical data. We also discuss the possible future developments of the secondary reserve market regarding to the following three years. We build a model which calculates the adjusted costs of different market participants and creates merit order curves in different scenarios. Based on this model we give price forecast for the secondary reserves market for the following three years. We also conduct a partial sensitivity analysis for the main elements of the marginal cost, and also for the electricity price.