Forecast of electricity prices for 2008Uploaded: 1 of February, 2007

Our study aims to answer the question: what electricity prices will be in the Hungarian wholesale and retail electricity market in 2007 and in 2008. There were several difficulties to be solved in the forecast, the most important was the determination of the market structure following the liberalisation. A vast majority of Hungarian electricity supply, due to long term power purchase agreements (PPA), are in the hands of the public wholesale retailer. The PPAs structure determine the market structure and thus the prices. Therefore, besides the usual sensitivity analysis, the key question was what kind of electricity price will be formulated in different PPAs cancelling scenarios.