Preparation of sectoral CO2 emission forecasts in 16 industries in hungaryUploaded: 1 of January, 2004

The first volume of the final report discusses and summarizes our most important results. It presents detailed sectoral and total emissions prognoses for GHG and CO2 emissions that fall under the scope of the Directive 2003/87/EC (ETS). The second volume includes summary reports and the appendixes of sectoral investigations that provided the basis for the emissions calculations. The investigations were restricted to the biggest national GHG emitting sectors identified by the National Inventory Report. The determination of the product line which represents best the sector's activity was preceded by a systematic data collection. We analysed long time series in order to be able to distinguish the fundamental processes from the irrelevant ones. We searched for variables that explain the changes in the activity level and structure of each sector. In most cases we were able to set up robust statistical-econometric relationships for the forecasts. The research covering a dominant share of the national economy builds all sectoral investigations on the same macroeconomic trend. The Ministry launched the results for consultation in several rounds, including consultation with the state administration, consultation with the EU-committee, public consultation. The outcome of these consultations determined the sectoral CO2 emissions caps for the 2005-2007 period.

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