Modelling and security of supply analysis of the domestic electricity wholesale market until 2030 with different power plant scenariosUploaded: 27 of February, 2019

The net import ratio of Hungary is very high as its average value between 2013 and 2017 was 32%. From the European countries only Lithuania, Luxemburg, Albania and Croatia had higher net import ratio in the same timehorizon. However, this outstanding share in Hungary is accompanied by strong interconnectivity as the country’s existing import capacities accounts for 55% of the total installed capacities of domestic power plants. One of the main aims of our work is to investigate whether the high import ratio in Hungary can lead to security of supply problems. We have also analyised that what are the effects of the closure of several existing electricity generation power plants in next decade, on the wholesale market.
With the increasing share of electricity generated by weather dependent renewable power sources, the need for flexible capacities which can balance the variable production is also increasing. It is important to determine whether the Hungarian power system has sufficient flexible capacities in the 2020s or other mechanisms are needed which can provide solutions for the potentially emerging problems.
In the analysis we modelled the future wholesale electricity prices, the demand for renewable support, future natural gas usage and security of supply situation based on different indicators, in six predefined power plant scenarios.