Forecasting the Hungarian imbalance settlement prices using market modellingUploaded: 29 of January, 2021

The aim of this project is to forecast the Hungarian imbalance settlement prices in a 15-year time horizon. The forecast was carried out using market modelling in three steps. As a first step, we modelled the wholesale electricity and reserve markets using the EPMM (European Power Market Model) model developed by REKK. The results of this model give the supply bids and available cross-border capacities for the balancing energy exchange. Next, we estimated the forecasted balancing energy prices using EBEMM (European Balancing Energy Market Model) model also developed by REKK, which simulates the operation of the PICASSO platform. Finally, based on these prices an excel model calculates the Hungarian imbalance settlement prices. Beyond the reference scenario, the forecasts were carried out also for several alternative scenarios.