The energy forecast serves as a background document to the EU Energy Efficiency Directive of 2012/27/EU for the Ministry of National Development.
The forecast follows a two-step approach. First it projects the final energy consumption in a higher level sectoral breakdown (industry, households, services and transport) with the help of sectoral bottom-up models (for households and services) and with econometric estimates on the rest of the sectors. The final consumption of energy intensive sectors are modelled individually. As a second step it estimates the primary energy consumption, where the transformation losses and own consumption of the energy transformation sectors (including electricity generation and distribution, refining and coke making) are estimated.
The latest assumptions on the GDP growth, population, energy prices and carbon taxes are used in modelling the energy consumption.