Even as electricity demand remains largely stagnant across Europe, the use of natural gas in Europe’s power generation mix is showing prospects for growth, albei not uniformly. In the overall picture, lower gas prices, retiring coal plants, the need to reach environmental goals, and the planned phase out of nuclear energy should in theory help natural gas rebound. Europe’s Large Combustible Plant Directive (LCPD) together with individual policies in Western Europe that aim to phase out coal and nuclear capacity will relieve some of the pressure on CCGT generation. At the same time, Central and South Eastern Europe (CSEE) is comfortable with coal and nuclear retaining prominent roles in the generation mix, with a majority of Europe’s planned coal new build driven by Poland. Britain’s unilateral carbon price floor and some of the lowest NBP prices in the last decade continue to push coal generation down the merit order curve and into the red. Across continental Europe natural gas is also becoming more price competitive with coal as an input, evidenced by trends in clean and dark spark spreads, but the low ETS price has failed create an overwhelming sentiment for industry-wide switching. While depressed gas prices are beginning to create small windows for the profitable use of natural gas in power generation, more aggressive unilateral policy action akin to the British and French carbon floors will need to be taken up in Belgium, the Netherlands and most importantly Germany for gas to make a significant breakthrough.
Publications
REKK Quarterly: Trends in European coal to gas fuel switching and a Hungarian case studyPublished: 1 of August, 2016