The EGMM (European Gas Market Model) is a partial equilibrium natural gas market model. The model simulates gas markets in 42 countries, taking into account constraints in network infrastructure, long-term contracts, indigenous production, international LNG markets and storage infrastructure. The optimum calculated by the model is the equilibrium of gas supply and demand.
The model is primarily suited for scenario analysis: it can quantify the utilisation of new infrastructure, the impact of regulation and tariff changes.Deatiled modelling of stakeholders also allows for welfare modelling, which can be used for CBCA (cross-border cost allocation) analysis. The model can also be run with security of supply parameters, which can simulate unexpected shocks.
INPUTS
- Natural gas demand
- Long-term contracts for natural gas and LNG
- Pipeline, storage and LNG infrastructure
- Network tariffs and regulation
- Natural gas production
COVERAGE AND GRANULARITY
- -Spatial granularity: Country level
- Spatial coverage: EU27 and EnC Contracting Parties
- Temporal granularity: monthly (12 months)
OPTIMISATION LOGIC
- Supply-demand balance, cost minimisation
OUTPURS
- Natural gas consumption by country
- Wholesale natural gas prices
- Modelling of security of supply scenarios
- Pipeline, storage and LNG flows and utilisation
- Natural gas purchase costs, welfare changes by market and market participant
MAIN USES
- Scenario-based price estimation
- Infrastructure cost-benefit analysis
