Kiadványok / Policy brief
Russia’s energy weapon – Examining how a reduction of gas exports can impact European pricesPolicy Brief - policy briefMegjelent: 2022. március 7.

The 24 February 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine marks a new epoch in modern history. The first days of the war moved many Western countries to impose economic sanctions on Russia despite the leverage it has over Europe with energy supplies, especially natural gas which still dominates the residential heating mix. In our short analysis, we modelled the price effect of the full cessation of Russian gas imports to Europe.

  • In the short-run, a complete cessation of Russian natural gas would force Europe to curtail 900 TWh or 17% of current demand
  • Wholesale price would increase some 200-300% overall but price zones would re-emerge based on ability to access to LNG and global markets
  • LNG terminals are limited by internal bottlenecks (e.g. UK, Iberian Peninsula)
  • Total cost of gas procurement may increase by 100 Bn EUR (over 40% increase)

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