The future of gas transit through Ukraine is one of the most pressing energy security issues facing the EU in 2019, with the current gas shipping contract between Russia and Ukraine set to expire 31 December and the realization of alternative pipeline routes facing delays or uncertainty. Using market modelling tools, this paper examines Russian export strategies to Europe using different transit route combinations. Although the cessation of Ukrainian transit would not endanger the security of gas supply in Europe, it would result in higher prices across Europe in all scenarios. The loss of welfare in the V4 is, at best, only partially compensated with the addition of the alternative infrastructure, even if they are financed by Russian capacity bookings. In those scenarios where Nord Stream 2 and Turk Stream 2 are completed, Ukrainian transit is not essential to maintain the current Russian share of EU gas imports. However, the results also show that halting Ukraine transit is less profitable for Russia, even if all the planned infrastructure is completed. In this scenario, utilizing Ukrainian transit has the potential to increase its share of EU imports up to 50 percent. Alternatively, circumventing Ukraine would result in significant profit loss for Russia, close to 5 billion € per year.

Available at the publisher's website (in Hungarian)