Analysis
High prices in the region – can flow-based market coupling be blamed?Uploaded: 18 of November, 2025

The project analysed the causes of the unusually large electricity price divergence between Central and South-Eastern Europe since 2024, with a particular focus on the impact of flow-based market coupling. It systematically processed JAO flow-based data to quantify how Critical Network Elements (CNECs) shape cross-zonal price spreads, and identified the structural bottlenecks and market design features most responsible for the elevated prices in the High-price Region. In addition, regression modelling was used to assess the extent to which different potential explanatory factors contribute to the observed price differences. Finally, market modelling was applied to evaluate how various mitigating factors could reduce the extreme price levels recorded in the summer of 2024.