The energy infrastructure of Central and South East Europe (CSEE) had been developed while Europe was divided by the Iron Curtain. Since independence the region’s electricity grid expanded into an integrated European system (UCTE). Meantime the gas transmission network remained almost intact and sufficient steps were not made to decrease the region’s almost unilateral dependence on Russian supplies or increase gas liquidity throughout the region. The two gas crises of the past five years (2006 and 2009) that had a significant impact on EU supplies revealed the asymmetric exposure of the CSEE region to the supply security, price and political risks related to Russian gas deliveries. The key question today for the future of gas supply security and also for gas market development in CSEE countries is how fast and deep their physical and commercial integration into the European gas market will be. Recent EU measures and initiatives seem to recognize these concerns and put forward meaningful obligations and proposals to accomplish the gas grid and market integration of Eastern Member States. However, the success of these efforts will depend on the interplay of a relatively large number of factors related to technology, geopolitics and finance that surround gas industry developments in CSEE.
The aim of this paper is exactly to reflect on this complexity and generate interdisciplinary debate about long-term risks and opportunities by presenting three middle run (20 years) scenarios for potential gas industry development in and around the CSEE region. Such a scenario development might create the basis for identifying relevant, ‘best response’ local (regional) policy alternatives to the different scenarios.