Modeling / Regulating power modelling

Balancing energy prices are modeled and forecasted using the European Balancing Energy Market Model (EBEMM). This is based on the operation of the aFRR platform, which helps to optimize the use of aFRR reserve capacities at the international level. The model assumes a competitive market as it describes the market situation after the launch of the platforms. The objective function is to maximize social welfare, applied with restrictions prohibiting simultaneous, opposite activations. These opposite flows are netted automatically. We perform static modeling: we do a separate optimization for each hour, which arrives at the balancing energy price forecast for each hour and country.


  • Outputs of European Power Market (EPMM) modelling: available balancing reserve capacites, bid prices for balancing energy, cross-border capacities
  • Statistical forecasts of balancing energy needs


  • Spatial granularity: Country level
  • Spatial coverage: members of PICASSO platform
  • Temporal granularity: hourly


  • Welfare maximization taking into account the netting of balancing energy between countries


  • Activation of positive and negative balancing energy
  • Price of positive and negative balancing energy
  • Quantity of imbalance netting


  • Scenario based forecast and analysis of balancing energy and imbalance settlement prices
  • Analyses of the effect of balancing energy platforms
  • Forecasting balancing activities of different power plants