As part of the project, we selected a few key issues from the regulatory and market challenges of the 2023/24 gas market year, which we examined under several scenarios. The issues examined were:

1. The EU has sanctioned the transshipment of Russian LNG at European terminals.
2. The Ukrainian transit agreement expires at the end of 2024, and its impact on Europe's gas markets.
3. The German government plans to retroactively collect the costs of the energy crisis from consumers through tariffs, including at cross-border points.

The effects were analyzed in three global price market environments (medium, high, and low Japanese prices) and under three European demand assumptions (2023 actual and +/- 15%) for the years 2024, 2025, 2027, and 2030.

We found that:

1. Although the LNG transshipment sanction does not have a major impact on European markets, it may significantly affect the Russian side in the form of profit reduction.
2. The loss of Ukrainian transit does not pose a supply security issue but may temporarily increase regional prices in 2025. This price effect virtually disappears by 2030, especially if the decline in gas demand continues. The presence of Russian gas no longer significantly affects European prices; the level of European demand and the global LNG price environment are much more decisive.
3. The increase in German tariffs significantly affects Central and Eastern Europe, as it worsens the economic viability of westward commercial deliveries and thus reduces the volume of gas coming from that direction into the region.