Publications
Medium Term Gas Market OutlookPublished: 1 of June, 2010

As we approach 1 July, in Hungary great efforts are made to prepare the contracts for the new gas year. The big question for Hungarian consumers is in what manner and to what extent can they benefit this year and in the next 2-3 years from the favourable developments of the Western European gas markets, what are the obstacles and conditions for these attractive changes to also take root in Hungary. After reviewing the main factors shaping the Western-European market, we will address this question. The global natural gas market, including the European market undergoes fundamental changes these days. One of the signs for the change is that in the European gas market, traditionally based on long term, oil indexed contracts (TOP), spot prices have substantially and persistently fell below the contractual prices. This trend is foreseen to last in the medium term (2-3 years), placing considerable pressure on the price of TOP contracts, too. As a result, Gazprom has become willing to tie 15% of its prices to the spot market for its large partners. Recent developments may signal an enduring structural change in European gas pricing, and the long-lasting decoupling of the price of natural gas from the price of oil. This is true even when GECF (Gas Exporting Countries Forum), consisting of the largest natural gas producers, makes cartel-like efforts to sustain oil indexed natural gas pricing.