In late February, an extreme phenomenon occurred on TTF, the most liquid European natural gas exchange: daily settlement price was peaking over 70 €/MWh, with hourly results as high as 150 €/MWh.

The hike was unprecedented: most extreme weather, the 2012 cold spell produced daily settlement price of 40 €/MWh.

In our short analysis we assess the possible reasons for such extreme market outcomes and consider whether this is the normal functioning of the gas market and are similar spikes to be expected in the future.