The effect of the opening of the Tiszaroff flood storage reservoir on downstream flood riskDevelopment of a Monte Carlo simulation based decision support systemUploaded: 29 of September, 2015

A decision support system was developed for the Middle Tisza Region Water Directorate (Kötivizig).

The flood-storage reservoir at Tiszaroff can provide significant help to avoid a potential flood catastrophe. Although the opening of the flood gates generates substantial costs to be paid from public resources to compensate the crop damage within the reservoir, on the opposite side the benefits are uncertain. These benefits consist of the reduction of flood risk and cost reduction of the defence activities along the river. During the build-up of an approaching flood wave a decision has to be made about the opening of the flood gates among uncertain information circumstances.

The goal of the project was to help decision-makers with economic information to approximate the optimal decision on the reservoir use. For this purpose we developed a Monte Carlo simulation based economic decision support system that makes use of the relevant hydrologic assumptions and the results of the flood forecasts generated by hydrologic models. The decision support system can be supplied with the most recent flood wave forecasts as part of an ongoing defense activity.