The European Commission set forth the full phaseout of Russian pipeline gas and LNG in the so-called REPowerEU Roadmap. The Roadmap published 6 May 2025, stipulates the full phase-out of Russian pipeline gas and LNG from 1 January 2026, with derogations for long-term contracts until 1 January 2028. The long-term contracts still delivered in October 2025 were the contract to Hungary (4.5 bcm/yr), Slovakia (2 bcm/yr) and Greece (2 bcm/yr). Long-term LNG bookings at terminals in France and Spain are also affected. The Commission’s proposal was heavily debated from both sides: Hungary and Slovakia strongly opposed the ban on Russian contracts, while the European Parliament pushed for earlier implementation of the long-term contract ban.

The main question that arising from the new Roadmap is how it will affect the markets and how much it will hurt the European consumers’ pockets? Some have already quantified the effects, ranging from an exorbitant political statement like doubling the price on TTF to meagre price effects around 0.5 USD/mmbtu (~1.5 €/MWh) TTF price increase in 2028, as well as an 8 USD/mmbtu price increase in Hungary and Slovakia with 2026 implementation of the ban (~24 €/MWh). Using stylised modelling of the European gas market, we show that if the original proposal of the Commission is enacted, price effects will rather be below 0,5 €/MWh, a 1% increase of the wholesale gas prices for the EU27, and evenly distributed in the entire EU. Early implementation of the proposal could result in an average 4% increase of EU27’s wholesale price and would widen the spreads between Western and Central Eastern European markets. While in Western Europe price increase would be around 1€/MWh, the latter would suffer from a 3-4 €/MWh price increase, which does not exceed 10%. The most affected countries in the Balkans may experience a price increase over 5 €/MWh (slightly over 10%).